Thursday, January 03, 2008

Bolivian military and the opposition

Evo Morales has named a new Chief of the Armed Forces in Bolivia. The outgoing general said that the military should “persuade, dissuade, repress, and annihilate any enemy of the Fatherland that opposes its interests.” Morales added that the unity of the country was a central interest.

So far, opposition prefects have threatened “autonomy” but not secession. It is not clear whether the military’s message relates only to the latter, but the overall thrust is that the state will only accept so much before using force. Hopefully this can just remain rhetoric that serves as a first volley for negotiations in 2008.

6 comments:

Anonymous,  9:32 AM  

Can anything concrete be said of US support to autonomy?

Greg Weeks 9:49 AM  

Interesting question--I think the answer is no, as the U.S. government has made no public statement that I know of. What's being said privately is anyone's guess.

Bosque 2:40 PM  

If the US backs autonomy, it will be seen as doing what the Social Democrats in LA have always accused, purposely destroying and destabilizing their countries. I think that would seriously ruin what little relations the US has with most South American countries.

What happens when everyone in the US gets wind of the news? I know of a New England State and a few Midwestern Municipalities that have bids in for actual succession and autonomy.

...and its an election year to boot.

Greg Weeks 3:12 PM  

I tend to agree, which is why I emphasized the private angle. But we simply don't know.

Bosque 9:32 PM  

You are right. No we don't know but I really think its too high risk even for individual financiers looking to make a pretty penny. No matter if they are US corporate people, their actions will still be seen as US Govt involvement; particularly since the area in question is gas/oil.

Then there is Ron Paul. Whether I agree or not with his politics, there is one thing for certain, he would tell and tell loudly.

It would have to be super secret clandestine ... it would be interesting.

I'm hoping everything works out in Bolivia without any interference. We shall see.

Boli-Nica 4:18 PM  

What 'US' are you talking about anon? State Department? White House basement? Pentagon?

US-Bolivian relations the past 30 years from the US side has been over Cocaine erradication and interdiction. State Department offices dealing with drugs and DEA have a lot of weight.

Issue now is whether an "autonomous" Santa Cruz + 5 other Departments, will lead to even weaker central control by the Bolivian Government over the territory, and allow an increase in coca base/paste/cocaine exports.

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