Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Repeat after me: Latinos are not swing voters

Yesterday Ruben Navarrette, Jr. wrote his commentary for CNN about how Latinos are swing voters. The Latino population is fascinating politically for many reasons, but I have to keep repeating that they are not swing voters. In other words, there is no evidence to suggest that any change of vote will be different from the rest of the population. Once again I will quote from Leal et al (2008):

Some pundits, journalists, and political consultants may repeat the myth for professional reasons. It would produce much more interest, as well as create suspense, if a substantial share of the Latino electorate was said to frequently switch its support for political parties and candidates. Such a portrayal would help generate more demand for those who provide interpretation of, commentary about, and outreach to the Latino electorate (p. 313).

If anyone sees empirical studies to the contrary (as opposed to just punditry), let me know.

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